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Tässä Jim Jubakin kirjoitus , jossa arvaillaan, että seuraava valuuttakriisi osuukin Englannin puntaan Japanin jenin sijaan. Sillä olisi lähes välittömät seuraukset Yhdysvalloille:
It's one thing when it's Greece or Portugal. A credit downgrade or
warning for those countries isn't exactly headline news for most
investors. For most of our portfolios, these are peripheral markets.
Ireland in trouble, too? Yawn. Don't own any Irish stocks.
Italy? What's new? Italy's always running a deficit.
Spain? That's a surprise. Time to check the portfolio. But, whew, don't own any Spanish stocks.
The
United Kingdom? Whoa. Now we're getting serious. How could the home of
Big Ben, Queen Elizabeth II, the Bank of England, the pound sterling
and clotted cream be facing a credit downgrade? Or maybe even worse?
The cost of insuring against a U.K. default in the derivatives market is only slightly lower than the price of insuring against a default by Portugal.
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